Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.2 miles South-East of Clayton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.2 miles South-East of Clayton
37.8804°N, 121.8284°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 04:18:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
4h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
107.1 km
7.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
17.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
14.0 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 6.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
150e85ee044c484b3a5d44e3c995ab57d624121e3e3e7a833356b171ff6bea52
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.88--121.83-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 23:26:38 PST
Source Batch
20260801_135710_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 16:26:20.565248+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.