Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
6.8 miles South-East of Clayton
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.8 miles South-East of Clayton
37.8824°N, 121.8361°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 15:18:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
70.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
10.3 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
014cb01593ec39e7d961b1ed9c397857f0c0a6001191d2972cc4818a0cc65fbd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.88--121.84-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 14:12:12 PST
Source Batch
20260803_043847_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 14:12:13.952993+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.