Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
5.3 miles South-West of Brentwood
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.3 miles South-West of Brentwood
37.8888°N, 121.7760°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 17:42:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
5h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
70.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
22.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
12.3 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c8b3079db0fa9243728fad1c53898ea4b4a84553463690130a748eb126a9873f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.89--121.78-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 11:52:51 PST
Source Batch
20260804_021812_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 11:52:51.974608+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.