Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
3.4 miles South-West of Brentwood
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.4 miles South-West of Brentwood
37.9038°N, 121.7480°W
Forecast Time Window
3rd of August 2026
Aug 03, 2026 11:12:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 37m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
71.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
10.3 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
276806c98818a30ac56e069c7c9ad1b4076623dbc7b489ce26d1f1c989e2ed1d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.90--121.75-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 03:34:21 PST
Source Batch
20260802_175908_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 03:34:22.291936+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.