Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
98.9 miles South-West of Point Arena
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
98.9 miles South-West of Point Arena
37.8965°N, 124.9846°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 00:34:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
6h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
233.9 km
133.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
3.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.13
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
15.6 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 6.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
523e498bb82ae9b126544f50b8243ce96d5dae354d530f58db62b05bf517bf61
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.90--124.98-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 17:49:05 PST
Source Batch
20260803_081525_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 17:49:06.263426+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.