Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
4.0 miles North-West of Chinese Camp
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.0 miles North-West of Chinese Camp
37.9054°N, 120.4881°W
Forecast Time Window
6th of August 2026
Aug 06, 2026 23:31:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
4h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
161.7 km
61.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
10.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
11.8 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 2.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bfd0ea54a6d8f5832ca3d2f3a7773bf7ad279bd2cfc9879886d58ee68a39fdf7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.91--120.49-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 18:38:00 PST
Source Batch
20260806_090614_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 18:38:01.086399+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.