Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
6.7 miles South of Antioch
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.7 miles South of Antioch
37.9076°N, 121.7980°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 13:50:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
72.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
10.3 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 2.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
807720ebc93b482562e8c8104d7010470d632fdc32eb01e57b1445a2630c640e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.91--121.80-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 02, 2026 06:24:29 PST
Source Batch
20260801_205507_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 06:24:30.171442+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.