Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
7.4 miles East of Lee Vining
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.4 miles East of Lee Vining
37.9439°N, 118.9862°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 10:32:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
36h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
247.2 km
147.2 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
18.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
25.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9fa4c040d74e88ed019423c14efd1179c47c68ace9740068029e898c0bd8d441
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.94--118.99-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 22:19:26 PST
Source Batch
20260806_140502_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 14:58:03.247612+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.