Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
4.0 miles South-West of Antioch
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.0 miles South-West of Antioch
37.9535°N, 121.8390°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 11:05:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
5h 11m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
115.1 km
15.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.17
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
14.0 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 6.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cb173042f0b83026b4a82fd8cdf8a35bc55e2b4be9e7e92ceff5763c44977a2a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.95--121.84-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 05:54:02 PST
Source Batch
20260731_202541_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 05:54:03.886342+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.