Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
3.6 miles South-West of Antioch
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.6 miles South-West of Antioch
37.9593°N, 121.8377°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 13:50:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
4h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
115.3 km
15.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
6.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.43
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
12.6 km
Pred. 7.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
16c32a8b891ee8e2b31a8141ed8e325c358951ee0d26e36ba579d0084d5e7c0d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-37.96--121.84-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 09:33:12 PST
Source Batch
20260731_001513_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 09:33:13.536511+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.