Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
20.3 miles West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
20.3 miles West of Warm Springs
38.1190°N, 116.7479°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 01:58:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
112h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
166.5 km
66.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
16.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.30
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
25.1 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 10.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
51f4c415cc011d3f48816ef6c0e73816f68988a3629f3c2eb86f7ac323ffc685
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.12--116.75-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 09:35:49 PST
Source Batch
20260805_012128_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 19:03:27.895782+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.