Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
21.8 miles South-West of Marietta
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.8 miles South-West of Marietta
38.1190°N, 118.7705°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 01:58:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
97h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
69.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
50.2 h
14.2 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.70
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
26.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fbb32120d4d98ace60fcffe7fa91a7c0969b87de3e9a5a62b205adfb9329fb15
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.12--118.77-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 00:12:45 PST
Source Batch
20260805_155927_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-05 13:14:06.311538+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.