Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
10.9 miles North of Coaldale Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.9 miles North of Coaldale Junction
38.1674°N, 117.7938°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 07:36:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
106h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
10.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.03
Predicted M3.53 vs actual M2.5
- 0.03 over limit
Depth Error
14.2 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
20ca055d956ccd4c2e099ad87cb160dca75ca45ada86e7b525c8feba65909e88
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.17--117.79-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 20:58:19 PST
Source Batch
20260728_013753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 20:58:19.825531+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.