Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
10.8 miles North of Coaldale Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.8 miles North of Coaldale Junction
38.1669°N, 117.7967°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 22:49:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
81h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
9.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
30.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.03
Predicted M3.53 vs actual M2.5
- 0.03 over limit
Depth Error
14.2 km
Pred. 4.2 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
3937575aa8b80618a84836759f5a83eb9b2a1da3b36fadb224723672312c0ab6
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.17--117.80-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260728_221221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.