Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
15.7 miles West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.7 miles West of Warm Springs
38.1793°N, 116.6720°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 11:55:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
49h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
114.1 km
14.1 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
6.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.28
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
21.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 6.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d196c36b99d907654b049927def596fa4761710b8f2861c0f63aec4823ff68eb
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.18--116.67-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 10:39:51 PST
Source Batch
20260803_022646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 10:39:53.009061+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.