Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
21.8 miles West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.8 miles West of Warm Springs
38.1827°N, 116.7848°W
Forecast Time Window
31st of July 2026
Jul 31, 2026 14:50:36 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
22h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
98.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
25.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.48
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
16.0 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
707697f2961a3f0a8e0458156f47ebcd8fed97f4884eda656b25d6b3c14e9068
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.18--116.78-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 16:26:49 PST
Source Batch
20260730_081158_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 16:26:50.666398+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.