Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
9.8 miles North-East of Basalt Junction
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.8 miles North-East of Basalt Junction
38.1793°N, 117.8921°W
Forecast Time Window
5th of August 2026
Aug 05, 2026 11:55:08 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
27h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
67.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.28
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
21.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 6.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b9717e95d41d87122cbc89f4ecf01124c9d80ebbf0353b1e65629b9bfb5cb95a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.18--117.89-t10335
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 08:15:36 PST
Source Batch
20260804_000218_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-02 16:54:36.868509+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.