Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
4.8 miles South-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.8 miles South-East of Bridgeport
38.2014°N, 119.1765°W
Forecast Time Window
1st of August 2026
Aug 01, 2026 02:54:56 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
77h 56m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
81.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.94 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
13.8 km
Pred. 3.9 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
94bea05ba135fb2407f4e2d346673b5e198647d243fd224c12ccb156e6a4c3cd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.20--119.18-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 20:58:19 PST
Source Batch
20260728_013753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 20:58:19.825531+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.