Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
15.4 miles South-West of Marietta
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
15.4 miles South-West of Marietta
38.2164°N, 118.7384°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 13:46:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
111h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
67.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
62.4 h
26.4 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.70
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
26.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
fce6f80850dad72581e742b3aaacd77397392b7b3fbafc5412e5ecb7bd0a770e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.22--118.74-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 22:40:46 PST
Source Batch
20260804_142745_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 22:40:47.884037+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.