Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
17.3 miles East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.3 miles East of Bridgeport
38.2178°N, 118.9161°W
Forecast Time Window
28th of July 2026
Jul 28, 2026 18:42:16 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
30h 30m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
77.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
44.9 h
8.9 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M3.16 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
19.1 km
Pred. 9.1 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
486c586799e47ff907b8ef6ff108e2285847e7f3af4cfd41e530e18fc76c213f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.22--118.92-t10331
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 27, 2026 12:11:32 PST
Source Batch
20260727_050646_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-27 10:07:08.819405+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.