Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
7.5 miles South-West of Napa
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.5 miles South-West of Napa
38.2396°N, 122.4041°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 18:26:49 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
55.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
3.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.37
Predicted M2.47 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.2 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 12.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ca6520219f1d1b1ab4241fce74feb431ab228f8d45bd1420ed864a5cec401cfd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.24--122.40-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 18:47:49 PST
Source Batch
20260808_091352_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 15:05:30.413017+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.