Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
29.2 miles South of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
29.2 miles South of Nye
38.2714°N, 115.1903°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of July 2026
Jul 27, 2026 13:36:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
238.4 km
138.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
33.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.58
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
20.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 6.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
562723e786184672bae951da196e728e1aa816b12820613460b7602551b5e824
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.27--115.19-t10330
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 01:33:35 PST
Source Batch
20260727_133753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 01:33:35.510631+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.