Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
19.9 miles South of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.9 miles South of Belmont NV
38.3235°N, 116.8441°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 01:33:51 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
47h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
88.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M2.98 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
15.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 0.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
597201a276adea5e0ef67b454f388c665b59be3b1550557c9585c39310beea3a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.32--116.84-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 05, 2026 02:18:38 PST
Source Batch
20260804_180437_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-04 19:03:27.895782+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.