Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
16.0 miles South-East of Manhattan
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.0 miles South-East of Manhattan
38.3357°N, 116.9250°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of July 2026
Jul 25, 2026 20:29:40 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
36m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
37.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
34.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.25
Predicted M2.96 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
14.2 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 7.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
74e5e45c6df27bd8a667bd3c5dbaaeb65935c678b64b636085220262b742303f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.34--116.92-t10329
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 25, 2026 19:52:53 PST
Source Batch
20260725_124753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-25 06:59:24.024244+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.