Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
17.9 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.9 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3564°N, 118.8761°W
Forecast Time Window
27th of July 2026
Jul 27, 2026 00:27:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
108.0 km
8.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
15.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M3.46 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
17.9 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bbd423f8fa9e1b6873a220fc424d802e1bfcb7eac38832d569fe5eb7558c6c5f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.36--118.88-t10330
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 27, 2026 09:58:21 PST
Source Batch
20260727_025332_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-25 06:59:24.024244+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.