Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
17.5 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.5 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.3746°N, 118.9476°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 14:33:02 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
348h 59m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
88.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.44
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.5
- 0.44 over limit
Depth Error
25.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c8d03cca22aaed2ff1070a1c9a97fb4d7e1d1f6013a489aef43f900111a3d2fc
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.37--118.95-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 01:33:35 PST
Source Batch
20260727_133753_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 01:33:35.510631+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.