Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
17.2 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.2 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.4011°N, 118.9003°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 16:37:58 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
329h 44m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
104.8 km
4.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
4.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.32
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
13.5 km
Pred. 8.5 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
47d78a64a7adc346c0b9a1a96122c53ad60c2e4fc5da66426525482b72aa750a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.40--118.90-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 22:53:35 PST
Source Batch
20260731_144055_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 02:45:18.421838+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.