Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
16.7 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.7 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.3986°N, 118.9836°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 17:16:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
14.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
332h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
92.6 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
10.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
25.1 km
Pred. 14.1 km vs actual 11.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6e9dd8b6a512ceb468942481dd03700f00efcaead32e9d3bbc47987df72f5528
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.40--118.98-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 28, 2026 20:58:19 PST
Source Batch
20260728_090504_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-28 20:58:19.825531+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.