Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
16.7 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.7 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.4078°N, 118.8940°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 23:05:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
209h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
105.6 km
5.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
26.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.77
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
15.8 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
258284a5abed1ce5c91174b495dc057e4290aa93663d8128609834409d7e88ee
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.41--118.89-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 05:39:26 PST
Source Batch
20260806_212525_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 18:38:01.086399+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.