Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
18.4 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.4 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.4104°N, 118.9311°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 15:53:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
383h 26m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
67.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
31.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.84
Predicted M3.94 vs actual M2.1
- 0.84 over limit
Depth Error
25.7 km
Pred. 9.7 km vs actual 16.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
2201ea88e9934b352315e36438d8dc9d4c1e23647c1e744b0dd1df3ce1dd5071
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.41--118.93-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 16:26:49 PST
Source Batch
20260730_081158_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 16:26:50.666398+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.