Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
16.2 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.2 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.4237°N, 118.8940°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 23:05:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
216h 45m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
107.3 km
7.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
26.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.77
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
15.8 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e8224bdffc4ef88a038cf8a93bd5f5fbd55444d1afd6619afb545190a2b3ba4e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.42--118.89-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 22:19:26 PST
Source Batch
20260806_140502_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 14:58:03.247612+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.