Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
18.1 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.1 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.4178°N, 118.9309°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 23:05:15 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
198h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
106.8 km
6.8 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
26.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.77
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
15.8 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7a2d4fea9a098c22ac32a653079751436fb95335f4f5663ed94799966a02b40c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.42--118.93-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 16:51:37 PST
Source Batch
20260807_083800_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-07 16:51:38.845506+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.