Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
18.5 miles West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.5 miles West of Hawthorne NV
38.4318°N, 118.9453°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 12:37:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
268h 21m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
108.5 km
8.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
16.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.77
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
15.8 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c7d183141c1dd6eee2a509904c59ac17262825097daa4848b31d3a0358a39bb3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.43--118.95-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 08:15:36 PST
Source Batch
20260804_000218_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 23:26:39.950538+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.