Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
18.5 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.5 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4286°N, 118.9722°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 04:27:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
276h 13m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
92.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.17
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.5
- 0.17 over limit
Depth Error
17.0 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6b6624ad5cfeb1a15dafeefda9d3779b7b1bc65061e50819013fe519ab263919
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.43--118.97-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 31, 2026 16:14:01 PST
Source Batch
20260731_080100_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-31 06:11:17.176388+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.