Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
18.7 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.7 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4297°N, 118.9675°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 12:37:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
261h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
108.4 km
8.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
16.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.77
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
15.8 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
620714df3ad89fb17c9228c26fa8ab1b6b29594f16387837ee0d6aba80ec00df
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.43--118.97-t10340
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 04, 2026 15:29:55 PST
Source Batch
20260804_071658_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 00:00:20.683630+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.