Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
18.2 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.2 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4286°N, 118.9787°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 04:27:27 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
293h 9m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
93.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.17
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M2.5
- 0.17 over limit
Depth Error
17.0 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8ef2d015fa9513e4641752ecfd8f71132fd5b7de58a308d19bb45d909e2900d7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.43--118.98-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 23:17:59 PST
Source Batch
20260730_150332_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 23:18:00.557176+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.