Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
12.2 miles North-West of Camp Connell
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.2 miles North-West of Camp Connell
38.4431°N, 120.3776°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of August 2026
Aug 13, 2026 20:51:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
288h 55m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
172.9 km
72.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
5.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M3.9
Depth Error
12.7 km
Pred. 7.2 km vs actual 5.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
238705a430d42e95785bee5d064b9f762f80b80fc5a4838356ca180687773401
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.44--120.38-t10339
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 19:56:19 PST
Source Batch
20260801_114315_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 12:57:21.108844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.