Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
17.5 miles West of Babbitt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
17.5 miles West of Babbitt
38.4531°N, 118.9351°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 15:32:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
263h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
287.7 km
187.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
18.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.23
Predicted M3.67 vs actual M3.9
Depth Error
10.6 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 4.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4aa12878481c0c6ea3b4f33a35eb598084c0df798f0fb9b4038784c880037e0a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.45--118.94-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 16:26:49 PST
Source Batch
20260730_081158_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 16:26:50.666398+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.