Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
8.1 miles South of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.1 miles South of Belmont NV
38.4946°N, 116.8452°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 04:31:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
24h 38m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
78.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.24
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
1.9 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 0.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4ef92bb7b5ce9334db10623c2775cfa4416270f78586fe2e5db87a07359b67c4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.49--116.85-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 03:53:29 PST
Source Batch
20260805_182241_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 03:53:30.040541+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.