Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
9.1 miles West of Babbitt
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
9.1 miles West of Babbitt
38.5021°N, 118.7904°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 10:32:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
21h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
76.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
81.0 h
45.0 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M3.2 vs actual M3.3
Depth Error
18.0 km
Pred. 15.0 km vs actual 3.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f113597e5fbccec41713f2c2a2fef06c21f43811ecbf9be76f2d18dd5cf3bdf1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.50--118.79-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 07, 2026 13:08:18 PST
Source Batch
20260807_045412_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 03:53:30.040541+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.