Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.9 miles North-East of Marietta
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.9 miles North-East of Marietta
38.5130°N, 118.4340°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 18:26:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
57.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
81.7 h
45.7 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b2e940a1493b502474be44d37e1e312c67d5c9ddea42a0e19599db4b30bf0b1c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.51--118.43-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 00:18:15 PST
Source Batch
20260807_144554_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 00:18:16.373118+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.