Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.7 miles East of Coleville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.7 miles East of Coleville
38.5127°N, 119.2429°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of August 2026
Aug 07, 2026 14:06:12 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
1.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
23h 8m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
152.4 km
52.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
26.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.54
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
10.8 km
Pred. 1.8 km vs actual 9.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
7916393f6244e18fb8fddb774adb17255869d62d150139cc74e18ef983e6366c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.51--119.24-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 06, 2026 14:58:01 PST
Source Batch
20260806_052549_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-06 14:58:03.247612+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.