Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.9 miles North-East of Marietta
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.9 miles North-East of Marietta
38.5181°N, 118.4470°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of August 2026
Aug 11, 2026 00:09:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
59.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 11.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
242cfd0995681c9e4007eb42945ce6ebeadbcdb363642025ae9e44b71005cf6d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.52--118.45-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 11, 2026 05:00:42 PST
Source Batch
20260810_192750_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-11 05:00:55.599592+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.