Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
11.6 miles North-East of Marietta
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.6 miles North-East of Marietta
38.5293°N, 118.4437°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of August 2026
Aug 02, 2026 12:39:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
15.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
23h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
60.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
20.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
25.2 km
Pred. 15.2 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f80b5e8f17969f99b66416b6f24acc777e3e753317e9d5e5fa03b447b3f19448
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.53--118.44-t10333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 01, 2026 12:57:19 PST
Source Batch
20260801_032821_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-01 12:57:21.108844+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.