Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.9 miles South-East of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.9 miles South-East of Nye
38.5365°N, 115.2708°W
Forecast Time Window
4th of August 2026
Aug 04, 2026 20:42:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
23h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
199.5 km
99.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
6.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
13.9 km
Pred. 5.1 km vs actual 8.8 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0c53d7e0c6a03e3104ad86852294df6bb371c1084e69a1dc3715ff5e31a0a94d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.54--115.27-t10334
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 03, 2026 21:25:55 PST
Source Batch
20260803_115217_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-03 21:25:56.733888+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.