Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
5.6 miles South-East of Belmont NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.6 miles South-East of Belmont NV
38.5424°N, 116.7857°W
Forecast Time Window
30th of July 2026
Jul 30, 2026 02:59:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
212.0 km
112.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
12.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.56
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M3.1
Depth Error
16.4 km
Pred. 6.4 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
29a976cdffafca3a38c103a43daf073e803072dd3e446fc1ef591f84ab1447df
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.54--116.79-t10332
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Jul 30, 2026 12:57:10 PST
Source Batch
20260728_221221_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-07-30 12:57:11.195655+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.