Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
4.9 miles North-West of Luning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.9 miles North-West of Luning
38.5374°N, 118.2539°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of August 2026
Aug 10, 2026 11:48:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
50.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
40.4 h
4.4 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
cb59d5f4e80015befe4c2f5a5ab37280f68a20f630902dfebf8f40ac76f0164d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.54--118.25-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 10, 2026 18:11:05 PST
Source Batch
20260810_083745_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-10 18:11:06.766806+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.