Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
13.5 miles North-West of Sodaville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.5 miles North-West of Sodaville
38.5445°N, 118.3986°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 00:39:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
13h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
58.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
75.5 h
39.5 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
15.9 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 11.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9bc50daead1658d17fc707f49493e83ea582f83917ee1d81d95b881e405bdc8b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.54--118.40-t10337
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 11:25:16 PST
Source Batch
20260808_015312_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 11:25:18.478455+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.