Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
16.5 miles South-East of Nye
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
16.5 miles South-East of Nye
38.5461°N, 115.1188°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of August 2026
Aug 08, 2026 18:26:37 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14h 25m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
84.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
33.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.24
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
4.9 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 0.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
dfeaf3c3a53ea295e3c2ac2ecda066dfd40a5178e8e2478d3ad902ff59c6811b
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.55--115.12-t10336
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 08, 2026 04:01:31 PST
Source Batch
20260807_182918_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-08 04:01:32.694486+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.