Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
10.7 miles East of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.7 miles East of Hawthorne NV
38.5499°N, 118.4283°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of August 2026
Aug 12, 2026 11:18:19 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
60.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
7.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.04
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 3.4 km vs actual 11.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
517b7c5e12ca19363d7b708422b29712383484c2ab8394cc524a8d778aae2d6d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
loc-38.55--118.43-t10338
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
Aug 12, 2026 09:24:27 PST
Source Batch
20260811_235234_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-08-12 09:24:28.760918+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.